Upsets Tracked
472
Expected vs Actual
Upsets
Biggest Upset
BOG over POET
Winner Expected
17.3%
| Match | Date/Event | Winner Expected | Upset Score | Elo Delta | Pre-Match Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOG def. POET | 07/26/2024 - Bloomburrow | 17.3% | 82.7% | +16.53 | 1403.78 vs 1675.09 |
| BARNACLES def. POET | 02/17/2025 - Innistrad Remastered | 18.8% | 81.2% | +16.24 | 1403.41 vs 1657.48 |
| AHAB def. SMEAG | 04/24/2026 - Secrets of Strixhaven | 20.5% | 79.5% | +15.9 | 1372.67 vs 1607.91 |
| AHAB def. POET | 04/24/2026 - Secrets of Strixhaven | 21.0% | 79.0% | +15.8 | 1356.87 vs 1586.89 |
| AHAB def. BOG | 09/27/2020 - Rise of Zendikar | 22.0% | 78.0% | +15.6 | 1393.84 vs 1613.91 |
| AHAB def. KLOBB | 01/23/2026 - Lorwyn Eclipsed | 22.8% | 77.2% | +15.44 | 1340.52 vs 1552.43 |
| PHLEGM def. BOG | 07/26/2019 - Core 2020 | 23.1% | 76.9% | +30.76 | 1376.27 vs 1585.2 |
| BARNACLES def. POET | 06/11/2023 - March of Machine | 23.2% | 76.8% | +30.72 | 1417.82 vs 1625.72 |
| AHAB def. POET | 08/06/2023 - Commander masters | 23.6% | 76.4% | +15.28 | 1435.71 vs 1639.71 |
| AHAB def. POET | 11/17/2023 - Dominaria United and Commander Masters | 23.6% | 76.4% | +15.27 | 1458.26 vs 1661.99 |
| AHAB def. SMEAG | 12/07/2024 - Dungeons and Dragons | 23.6% | 76.4% | +15.28 | 1357.85 vs 1561.87 |
| AHAB def. BOG | 10/25/2025 - Edge of Eternities | 23.8% | 76.2% | +15.24 | 1338.45 vs 1540.74 |
| AHAB def. KLOBB | 04/24/2026 - Secrets of Strixhaven | 23.8% | 76.2% | +15.24 | 1341.63 vs 1543.6 |
| AHAB def. KLOBB | 10/25/2025 - Edge of Eternities | 24.0% | 76.0% | +15.2 | 1330.83 vs 1530.87 |
| AHAB def. SMEAG | 11/09/2018 - GUILDS OF RAVNICA | 24.1% | 75.9% | +15.18 | 1392.42 vs 1591.93 |
| BOG def. POET | 12/22/2024 - Lord of the Rings | 24.2% | 75.8% | +15.16 | 1466.86 vs 1665.13 |
| PITTS def. SMEAG | 08/15/2021 - Modern Horizons 2 | 24.3% | 75.7% | +30.3 | 1333.49 vs 1531.28 |
| AHAB def. POET | 12/05/2021 - Innistrad Crimson Vow | 24.3% | 75.7% | +15.15 | 1423.92 vs 1621.68 |
| AHAB def. POET | 03/24/2023 - New phyrexia all will be one | 24.3% | 75.7% | +15.15 | 1448.59 vs 1646.27 |
| PITTS def. SMEAG | 08/22/2025 - Edege of Eternities | 24.4% | 75.6% | +30.24 | 1425.16 vs 1621.58 |
| AHAB def. SMEAG | 09/15/2018 - HOUR OF DEVASTATION, DOMINARIA AND CORE 19 | 24.6% | 75.4% | +15.09 | 1389.72 vs 1584.69 |
| AHAB def. SMEAG | 07/25/2020 - Core 21 (notes - 3 way tie for 2nd, hab then klobb than smeag for roll off) | 25.2% | 74.8% | +14.96 | 1382.28 vs 1571.42 |
| NARB def. PHLEGM | 07/02/2023 - LOTR | 25.3% | 74.7% | +29.87 | 1308.78 vs 1496.53 |
| AHAB def. BOG | 10/10/2020 - Zendikar Rising | 25.5% | 74.5% | +14.9 | 1421.86 vs 1607.93 |
| AHAB def. SMEAG | 03/24/2018 - Masters 25 | 25.7% | 74.4% | +29.74 | 1442.55 vs 1627.42 |
| AHAB def. POET | 07/25/2020 - Core 21 (notes - 3 way tie for 2nd, hab then klobb than smeag for roll off) | 25.8% | 74.2% | +14.85 | 1367.43 vs 1551.36 |
| AHAB def. SMEAG | 06/27/2026 - Secrets of Strixhaven & Lorwyn Eclipsed | 26.2% | 73.8% | +14.75 | 1390.45 vs 1569.92 |
| BARNACLES def. BOG | 06/11/2023 - March of Machine | 26.6% | 73.4% | +29.37 | 1388.45 vs 1565.09 |
| AHAB def. KLOBB | 11/09/2018 - GUILDS OF RAVNICA | 26.9% | 73.1% | +14.62 | 1384.17 vs 1557.99 |
| AHAB def. BOG | 10/29/2019 - Throne of Eldraine | 27.0% | 73.0% | +14.59 | 1438.76 vs 1611.2 |